By Nicky Smith
March 3, 2025
The housing market in the United States has experienced significant shifts over the past two decades, from the early 2000s boom to the Great Recession’s crash, followed by the COVID-19-fueled price surges. While some areas have seen wild price swings, others have remained stable, providing homeowners and investors with a sense of security. A recent study by Construction Coverage analyzed home price trends using Zillow data to determine which markets have been the most stable and which have been the most volatile.
Compared to the national average, North Carolina’s housing market has been relatively stable. Here are some key insights:
Chance of a 5% price drop since 2000: 20.4% (lower than the national average of 26.4%)
Largest price drop recorded: $23,890 (compared to $49,819 nationally)
Largest price drop percentage: 14.1% (versus 24.2% nationally)
Current median home price: $327,482
Total home price increase since 2000: 159% (compared to 196% nationally)
While North Carolina has seen steady price appreciation, the study shows that home prices in the state have experienced less volatility than in many other parts of the country. This suggests that homebuyers in North Carolina face a lower risk of encountering dramatic price declines, making it a relatively secure market for long-term real estate investments.
The study also compared the housing market’s stability to that of the stock market. Over the past 25 years:
The likelihood of experiencing a 5% price drop was significantly lower in the housing market (26.4%) than in the stock market (62.3%).
However, long-term price gains have been higher in stocks (+322% for the S&P 500) than in real estate (+196% for the Zillow Home Value Index).
This highlights real estate’s relative stability as an investment, though it generally offers lower returns compared to stocks. For those seeking long-term security, housing has been a safer option, though it is less liquid than the stock market.
The study revealed major differences in housing market stability across the country:
Most Stable Large Metros: Buffalo, NY; Oklahoma City, OK; and Pittsburgh, PA, where homebuyers had a 0% chance of experiencing a price drop greater than 5% since 2000.
Most Volatile Large Metro: Las Vegas, NV, where the probability of a 5%+ price drop was 48.5%, with peak-to-trough declines reaching 63.9%.
While North Carolina’s housing market is not among the most stable like Buffalo or Oklahoma City’s, it also avoids the volatility seen in places like Las Vegas or Phoenix. The state’s steady economic growth, diverse job market, and moderate housing demand contribute to its resilience.
North Carolina offers a balanced mix of affordability and stability for homeowners and potential buyers. While prices have increased substantially over the years, they have done so in a relatively predictable manner, making the market attractive for long-term investment.
Additionally, as one of North Carolina’s key cities, Greensboro has played a significant role in maintaining this stability. With ongoing economic initiatives, infrastructure development, and strong community engagement, Greensboro remains a prime location for real estate investment. Strong leadership in our City Council will bring a bright future for our city’s economic growth, ensuring that Greensboro remains a thriving and stable housing market for years.
North Carolina’s housing market has proven relatively stable, with a lower risk of significant price drops than the national average. While it may not offer the highest returns compared to stocks, real estate in North Carolina remains a sound investment for those seeking long-term security. With a growing economy and sustained housing demand, the state is well-positioned for continued stability in the years to come. Greensboro, in particular, stands out as a city poised for even greater economic prosperity, driven by strong leadership and a commitment to sustainable growth.
For reference, here are the statistics for the entire United States:
For more information, a detailed methodology, and complete results, see The Most Stable U.S. Housing Markets on Construction Coverage.
Greensboro’s future is bright, and as always, I remain committed to ensuring that our city’s growth benefits everyone.
Let’s build the future our city deserves. Greensboro is ready for a new era—let’s get to work.
Donate today, and let’s choose Greensboro’s future. Together, we can ensure that our city thrives for generations to come. Your voice matters—your vote matters—your support matters. Let’s make it count.
– Nicky Smith
Candidate for Greensboro City Council, District 4
